I read an article today, “Blu-ray Replication Shortfall in Q4?”, by Chris Tribbey, which discussed the potential shortfall in the availability of replicated Blu-ray discs during the business shopping quarter of the year, Q4. In the article, Jim Bottoms, director and co-founder of Futuresource Consulting, was paraphrased as stating that within 2011, the North American Blu-ray Disc replication infrastructure likely will hit capacity. Bottoms said, “There were major capacity shortages in Q4 of 2010,” he said, pointing to data showing a 60% year-over-year increase in Blu-ray production in 2010. “People are talking about new investment, but nothing has been approved yet. It needs to happen soon for it to help Q4.”

Even the major replication studios echo the notion that the Blu-ray replication needs will continue to increase as stated by Cinram CEO Steve Brown, “Consumer adoption of Blu-ray has been fabulous domestically and internationally,” he said. “In 2010 Cinram had a substantial increase in capacity — a 25% jump from the previous year. We’re fully committed to the format and increasing our capacity in 2011.”

What this says to me is that the adoption of the Blu-ray format is increasing rapidly and the infrastructure to meet the demand may not be able to keep pace. Even though the major studios are always going to find a replication source to produce their products, smaller operations will most likely have to find an alternative Blu-ray disc production method. Most likely minimum quantities are going to increase making it impossible for the common company/person to utilize replication for their Blu-ray titles. Fortunately, Blu-ray duplication is just as reliable and accepted by Blu-ray players as replication, so there is an alternative. Those people who need reproduction of their Blu-ray content but do not have the volume or the funds to utilize replication, can easily adopt duplication as a reliable and actually more convenient alternative.